http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/17/world/middleeast/at-least-six-protesters-killed-in-syria.html

September 16, 2011

Syria's Protesters, Long Mostly Peaceful, Starting to Resort to Violence

By ANTHONY SHADID

BEIRUT, Lebanon -- Syria's uprising has become more violent in the country's most restive regions, in what may signal the start of a protracted armed struggle after six months of largely peaceful protests in the face of a ferocious government crackdown, diplomats, activists and officials say.

Reports have mounted of clashes in Homs; in the outskirts of the capital, Damascus; in the southern Houran region; and at the border near Turkey. Officials and diplomats have spoken of at least three ambushes of military vehicles -- two buses and a jeep -- in Homs, in which at least five soldiers were killed. Activists have reported other clashes between soldiers and deserters in several regions of Syria.

Though the degree of violence remains unclear, the changing dynamics underline what has become a reality of Syria's tense stalemate: The longer President Bashar al-Assad remains in power, the more violent the country will become, even if no one knows what will follow him if he is ousted from power. Propelled by frustration, the opposition's resorting to arms would probably serve the interests of the government, adding validity to its otherwise specious contention that it faces an armed insurgency financed from abroad and driven by the most militant Islamists.

"It is quite simply a trap that the protesters will fall in," said Peter Harling, an analyst for the International Crisis Group who travels to Syria often.

As on past Fridays, the country witnessed a spasm of violence, as security forces sought to crush protests that, by many accounts, have lost some momentum in recent weeks. At least 44 people were killed, and military strikes, with tanks and armored vehicles, continued around Hama and in northwest Syria, a rugged region near the Turkish border. The newly dead added to one of the region's grimmest tolls: more than 2,600 killed by government forces, according to a United Nations count, and possibly tens of thousands arrested since the uprising began.

Reporting on Syria is notoriously difficult, with the government preventing most journalists from entering. But in the past few weeks, activists say armed clashes have also occurred twice in Harasta, near Damascus, between soldiers and deserters. An American administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said armed insurgents were still operating in Idlib, in the northwest, and diplomats believe sporadic clashes have also erupted in Dara'a, the southern town where the uprising began; Deir al-Zour, an eastern region knit by extended clans; Rastan, between Homs and Hama; and the outskirts of Damascus, which remain some of Syria's most restive locales. Residents of Homs, in particular, are believed to be arming.

Estimates of the number of protesters who have taken up weapons are anecdotal. Indeed, despite what appears to be government exaggerations, attacks have occurred since the uprising began, especially in the poor, drought-stricken southern steppe. But the American official said that the armed dimension of the uprising had grown noticeably in recent days.

"We're already seeing the beginning of it, and the longer it goes on, the worse it's going to be," the official, in Washington, said. "It's a very concerning development."

"I wouldn't go so far as to say now is the turning point, but I feel like we're seeing the beginning of it," the official added.

The violence seems to be most pronounced in Homs, where activists say protesters are best organized. The city, relatively favored by the government in recent years, has a majority Sunni population, with a minority of Alawites, a heterodox Muslim sect from which Mr. Assad's government draws much of its leadership. There are persistent reports of gun battles there, and of killings that seem to be sectarian in nature.

"All we know, and it's very clear, is that it's intense there and it's two-sided," the American official said of Homs. "We don't want Homs to become the scenario for the rest of Syria. If it did, everything could really descend into a chaotic situation."

Activists have reported defections since the start of the uprising, though the military and security forces have remained largely cohesive. The official put the number of defections at 10,000 -- "around that" -- and said a couple of hundred of them had coalesced into two groups, apparently rival, called the Free Syrian Army and the Free Officers Movement.

Since they erupted in mid-March, the protests have demonstrated a remarkable resilience, despite the bouts of repression, among the most ferocious in the region. But these days there is a sense of desperation, as moments that seem decisive come and go, and what seem to be limits of peaceful protests become clear to some.

"Protesters are telling authorities that they have the patience of Job," said one activist in Damascus, Iyad Sharbaji. "They have faith and believe that, if the protests stop, there will be revenge and killings that no one will survive from."

"That is why people are insisting to continue until the end," he added.

But a leading opposition figure, Louay Hussein, made clear how he would choose if faced with the prospect of civil war or an agreement with the government.

"If we had to choose between the worst of two evils, then we will choose reconciliation with the president," Mr. Hussein said. "We will reconcile and forgive if that is what we need to do to protect the country from civil wars and division."

The turn to violence may be coming after what activists, diplomats and analysts believe is a newly intensified crackdown, as security forces better concentrate on activist leaders. In the town of Daraya, near Damascus, the entire leadership of the protest movement -- at least 20 people -- were arrested, and one of them was killed. In Duma, another restive town near the capital, five checkpoints were set up along the road on Friday, and intelligence agents posted at each carried lists of activists they were trying to detain.

Mr. Sharbaji, the activist in Damascus, recounted that an activist carrying a banner was arrested, then 16 more were picked up: the person who bought the fabric, the person who scrawled the slogan, and some of their relatives and their friends.

The American official described the tactic as "arresting them, detaining them and, in some cases, killing them."

Mr. Harling suggested that the government's strategy was aimed at making it too perilous to protest.

"Quite simply, the regime is raising the costs of peaceful demonstrations to force protesters either to quit, in which case it wins, or to resort to weapons, in which case it could corroborate its narrative of a seditious insurgency and probably win also," he said.

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Earlier at url:

At Least 29 Protesters Killed in Syria

By ANTHONY SHADID

September 16, 2011

BEIRUT, Lebanon -- Syrian security forces shot dead 29 people Friday in some of the country's most restive locales, in yet another round of bloodshed that has led some there to fear Syria's six-month uprising may be headed toward an even more violent turn.

The crackdown on the revolt in one of the Arab world's most authoritarian countries has continued unabated, with the United Nations saying government forces have killed more than 2,600 people and diplomats estimating that arrests may number in the tens of thousands. Though Syria's government stands more isolated than at any time in decades, it has managed to maintain cohesion within the security forces and leadership.

The deaths occurred in regions that have witnessed some of the largest protests: Homs, in central Syria; Dara'a, a southern town where the uprising began; the suburbs of the capital Damascus; and the outskirts of Hama, Syria's fourth-largest city, according to the Local Coordination Committees, an activist group. Though recent Fridays in Syria unfailingly witness violence, the toll marked one of the bloodiest in weeks.

Activists also said military campaigns, with tanks and armored vehicles, continued around Hama and in northwest Syria, a rugged region near the Turkish border.

The Syrian government has cast the unrest as an insurgency, funded from abroad and driven by religious sentiments. In a visit to Moscow this week, Bouthaina Shaaban, an adviser to President Bashar al-Assad, discounted the United Nations' estimate of deaths, saying 1,400 people had been killed. She said 700 of them were soldiers and 700 insurgents, apparently suggesting no civilians had died in the protests and crackdown.

But international criticism has mounted, with the United States and European countries demanding that Mr. Assad step down. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who once counted Mr. Assad as a friend, has signaled growing anger with Syrian rebuffs of Turkey's pleas to undertake reform. In Tripoli, Libya, where Mr. Erdogan visited Friday as part of a tour of Arab countries, he warned Syrian officials of their fate on Friday.

"Do not forget this: Those in Syria who inflict repression on the people will not be able to stand on their feet," he told a cheering crowd in a square in Tripoli.

Later at a news conference, Mr. Erdogan used more explicit language. "Who comes with injustice cannot rule," he told reporters. "Anyone who sends tanks against his own people cannot rule. He must be held accountable for what he has done."  Mr. Erdogan made clear that he was referring to Mr. Assad.

Since they erupted in mid-March, the protests have demonstrated a remarkable resilience, persisting despite one of the region's most ferocious bouts of repression. Some activists have acknowledged that, given the violence, the demonstrations may have lost some momentum in past weeks, though they don't see the flagging numbers as decisive.

To many, fear is driving them to continue.

"Protesters are telling authorities that they have the patience of Job," said Iyad Sharbaji, an activist in Damascus. "They have faith and believe that, if the protests stop, there will be revenge and killings that no one will survive from."

"That is why people are insisting to continue until the end," he added.

Across the country, activists, diplomats and analysts have worried that as the toll mounts, and international pressure fails to force concessions from Mr. Assad's government, protesters may take up arms. There are growing reports that some already have in places like Homs, Syria's third-largest city, and the outskirts of Damascus.

"The suppression is becoming even more brutal," said a Syrian activist in the capital who gave her name as Hanan. "My biggest concern is the transformation of this peaceful movement into another form -- a violent reaction, for instance."