http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/25/world/middleeast/25assad.html

April 24, 2011

Syrian Crisis Tests the Mettle of Its Autocratic Ruler

By ROBERT F. WORTH

CAIRO -- For years, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria has nourished a reputation as a youthful and forward-looking leader in a region full of aging autocrats, a man who might yet reform the repressive police state he inherited from his father, given time and opportunity.

His country's worsening crisis -- a bloody battle between the police and protesters that is being closely watched around the world -- would seem to be a chance to stave off the violence with restraint or even bold reforms, a path his father never took. But as the death toll mounts, and the ominous disappearances of dissident figures increase, his time appears to be running out. International pressure is growing, and so is the outrage his violent crackdown has inspired.

Mr. Assad could still succeed in quelling the unrest, diplomats and analysts say. But to do so he would have to realize the hopes once placed in him when he inherited power from his father 11 years ago and confront his own family, which controls Syria's thuggish security apparatus and appears to be pushing hard for a continued crackdown. At least 120 people have been killed since Friday, the bloodiest day of the five-week-old uprising.

In the past day or two, mixed signals have emerged about which path he will take. On the one hand, Mr. Assad has hinted at a willingness to enact greater reforms than those announced last week, when he officially lifted Syria's draconian emergency powers law. But there have been dark warnings of harsher repression as well. In Syria's notoriously opaque political environment, it is impossible to tell which way the president is leaning.

"This is the moment of truth for Bashar al-Assad," said Jean-Pierre Filiu, a visiting professor at Columbia University who has written extensively on Syria. "He has potentially the ability to impose reforms on his own Baath Party, but has he the will to do so?"

The consequences of his decision could be momentous, perhaps more so than in any of the other revolts yet seen in the Middle East. Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, Syria is home to a checkerboard of defensive religious and ethnic minorities, and many fear that the end of the Assad family's 40-year dynasty could unleash brutal revenge killings and struggles for power. The chaos could easily spill over Syria's borders, to neighboring Lebanon and beyond.

The Obama administration has already accused Iran of helping to prop up Mr. Assad. If Syria fell, it would mark a striking setback for the theocratic regime in Tehran, which has depended on Syria for its influence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and elsewhere. Yet Iran's nemeses -- including Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia -- are also deeply unsettled by the prospect of regime change in Syria, which could set off a messy Iraq-style civil conflict.

Even if Mr. Assad survives, the turmoil is likely to have profound effects on Middle Eastern politics, some analysts say. "Our entire Syria policy for the past two and a half years has been based on getting Syria and Israel back to the peace table," said Andrew Tabler, an analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Now that Bashar has accused Israel and the United States of fomenting this challenge to him, it will be even harder for him to do that."

In a sense, the crisis Mr. Assad now faces is the same one that has defined his years in power: Again and again, he has inspired hopes, both at home and abroad, only to disappoint them. Western leaders courted him, in hopes he would democratize his country, make peace with Israel and stop supporting the militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah. Syrian liberals enjoyed a brief "Damascus Spring" of greater openness after his accession, but it soon faded. His personal style helped foster those illusions. Unlike his stern father, Hafez al-Assad, who took power in a coup in 1970, Bashar al-Assad seemed quiet and almost meek. He had studied ophthalmology in London, and had an elegant British-born wife. He speaks fluent English and French, and reads widely.

Even until recent weeks, "there was a tendency to see him as separate from the regime, that he could step out of his role," said one Syria-based analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity. But that patience seems to have ended. Calls for reform have turned into demands for an end to the Assad government, something unheard of until now.

Like other autocrats, Mr. Assad may be cushioned from the reality of the uprising; Syrian state media have portrayed it as the work of agents provocateurs from Israel, Saudi Arabia and even Lebanon. Some diplomats who know him personally say they believe Mr. Assad understands what is happening -- and what he needs to do to stop it -- but is too hesitant, or too timid, to carry it out.

"I think Bashar knows there has to be a political solution," said one former European diplomat who spent years in Damascus. "But he doesn't have the courage to do what he needs to do for the sake of the country, and perhaps for his own survival."

In part, that may be a matter of family dynamics. Mr. Assad is surrounded by relatives with reputations for ruthlessness, including his brother Maher al-Assad, who commands the army's Fourth Armored Division, and his brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, an intelligence chief. The family is said to fear that easing up on protesters could embolden them, bringing much larger crowds into the streets.

"They're damned if they do, and damned if they don't," said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma. "Bashar knows what the regime is built on: fear and patronage. And the fear is gone now."

Mr. Landis and other analysts said they believed Mr. Assad could still master the situation by announcing major concessions like relinquishing the Baath Party's hold on power or announcing free elections. But so far, his gestures have been too little, too late. If he had lifted the emergency law at the start of the uprising in March, instead of waiting until hundreds of protesters had been killed, it might all have ended there, Mr. Landis said.

Mr. Assad's options are now limited by a grim sectarian logic. His family, which has led Syria since 1970, is Alawite, a religious minority that represents perhaps 12 percent of Syria's population of 23 million. They have maintained a tight grip on Syria's feared security services, generating deep resentment among the country's majority Sunni Muslims.

In recent weeks, fearing a split in the army, the Assad government has relied almost exclusively on Alawite-dominated units, including the army division led by Mr. Assad's younger brother Maher al-Assad, analysts say. But that tactic has reinforced resentment of the Alawites among the rest of the population, and raised greater fears of sectarian bloodletting.

"Bashar is totally cornered," said the former diplomat. "And I'm sure that he is surrounded by people who are telling him: 'We're all in the same boat.' "